Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 21.956002 26.323337 31.113410 36.728679 43.101468 50.079969 58.269384
2025-09-21 15.830935 21.648318 28.662059 37.613876 48.600653 61.508233 77.672118
2025-09-28 11.274070 17.277750 25.116359 35.828972 49.794785 67.081777 89.764111
2025-10-05 9.269991 15.600028 24.409594 37.101948 54.412336 76.668183 106.853529
2025-10-12 7.691849 14.129670 23.629081 37.972709 58.314114 85.320928 122.972312
2025-10-19 6.432509 12.852892 22.862218 38.637890 61.803806 93.438618 138.601584
2025-10-26 5.504570 11.906214 22.406794 39.608371 65.656954 102.107332 155.213075
2025-11-02 4.482579 10.576542 21.133814 39.142540 67.288459 107.657884 167.678534
2025-11-09 3.766458 9.648682 20.368198 39.334713 69.819040 114.494874 182.091051
2025-11-16 3.106231 8.678415 19.377868 39.019986 71.477468 120.056679 194.812316
2025-11-23 2.473028 7.606464 18.037683 37.948155 71.808548 123.590087 204.648849
2025-11-30 2.176331 7.218300 17.918948 38.949933 75.483246 132.236490 222.183546
2025-12-07 1.730387 6.384255 16.872028 38.314129 76.625593 137.378864 235.225248
2025-12-14 1.478992 5.982001 16.655249 39.195280 80.394872 146.809537 255.141149
2025-12-21 1.086098 5.034995 15.101459 37.349858 79.311911 148.484384 263.263334
2025-12-28 0.953393 4.827802 15.166800 38.664313 83.828262 159.276839 285.742669
2026-01-04 0.817792 4.558960 15.039918 39.563351 87.625272 169.012591 306.838100
2026-01-11 0.692954 4.275484 14.826834 40.250039 91.049368 178.231527 327.359997
2026-01-18 0.598787 4.068071 14.769918 41.251754 95.092689 188.600874 349.975148
2026-01-25 0.470189 3.646550 14.068632 40.770952 96.287435 194.181041 365.034373
2026-02-01 0.384192 3.364480 13.693741 40.969306 98.772604 202.018782 383.928017
2026-02-08 0.301185 3.037226 13.120758 40.644454 100.193795 208.037236 399.973638
2026-02-15 0.220110 2.645049 12.260669 39.537999 99.969803 211.137123 411.249362